Consensus PnL $25K · win rate 75% (144–49, n=193) · was PM monthly #948 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$24.7K
Record
144W / 49L
Win Rate
75.0%
of 193 settled
Batting Avg
62.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#580
Source
PM monthly #948
Trades
321
Markets
266
Volume
$2.3M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $70K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
Specialties
219 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 74¢- Soccer
+24 pts
side won 91% of 82 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +18%
- Tennis
+13 pts
side won 95% of 98 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +5%
- MMA
+15 pts
side won 86% of 14 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +9%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 40% of 5)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 83% of 12)
- 50–70¢: 30%(won 88% of 66)
- 70¢ and up: 62%(won 94% of 136)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.