Consensus PnL $20K · win rate 62% (16–10, n=26) · PM monthly #676 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$19.6K
Record
16W / 10L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 26 settled
Batting Avg
69.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1157
Source
PM monthly #676
Record (90 d)
16/27 · 59%
Trades
120
Markets
26
Volume
$29.8K
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Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 3 on the consensus side (0%)- Will AS Roma win on 2026-11-03?Yes $1.6K · now 33¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (No)
- Taranto: Ryan Peniston vs Marcus WaltersMarcus Walters $1.4K · now 100¢ · in at 60¢against the consensus (Ryan Peniston)
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)AS Roma $682 · now 16¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (Manchester United FC)
Specialties
26 settled consensus markets · held side won 62% at an average entry of 39¢- NBA
+21 pts
side won 67% of 12 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +26%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 31%(won 25% of 8)
- 30–50¢: 42%(won 73% of 11)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 86% of 7)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.