Will AS Roma win on 2026-11-03?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 66¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$94.52

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 65.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares4,830

Combined PnL-$63.21

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,747

Combined PnL-$31.31

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

132h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 64.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$26.19	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
P1 P1kaso	Noavg 64.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$17.89	63% 754-450 (1204)
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360CTR	Yesavg 35.5¢	$750	$749.49	-$21.62	47% 142-163 (305)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 67.8¢	$2.7K	$657.58	-$108.5	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
MA Marios15tCTR	Yesavg 35.1¢	$570	$576.72	-$9.53	49% 95-100 (195)
HRTradingARB<$100	Yesavg 34.7¢	$239.7	$243.32	+$2.96	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34.7¢	$153.77	$157.39	+$3.62
└ No leg	Noavg 65¢	$85.93	$85.93	-$0.66
CA Cannae	Noavg 65¢	$130.28	$130.28	+$1	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 65¢	$27.86	$27.86	+$0.21	62% 1191-725 (1916)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$3.99	$3.93	-$0.17	50% 697-693 (1390)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$1,279.01

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$26.19

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

P1kaso

Invested

$1,013.6

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$17.89

Record

63%

754-450 (1204)

0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360CTR

Yes

Invested

$750

Value

$749.49

PnL

-$21.62

Record

47%

142-163 (305)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$2,735.11

Value

$657.58

PnL

-$108.5

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

Marios15tCTR

Yes

Invested

$570

Value

$576.72

PnL

-$9.53

Record

49%

95-100 (195)

HRTradingARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$239.7

Value

$243.32

PnL

+$2.96

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

Both legs:

Yes$153.7734.7¢+$3.62

No$85.9365¢-$0.66

Cannae

Invested

$130.28

Value

$130.28

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$27.86

Value

$27.86

PnL

+$0.21

Record

62%

1191-725 (1916)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.99

Value

$3.93

PnL

-$0.17

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

132h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.