Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Manchester United FC (67%) · Manchester United FC at 85¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 3

AS Roma16¢Manchester United FC84¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Manchester United FC

Consensus Traders

Manchester United FC 67%

Total Value

$30.0K

Combined PnL

$116.23

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 84.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralManchester United FC at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Manchester United FC

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

AS Roma16%

Manchester United FC85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Manchester United FC8 traders

Total Value$28.2K

Total Shares33,279

Combined PnL+$200.1

AS Roma4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares12,017

Combined PnL-$83.88

Manchester United FC — 67%AS Roma — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Manchester United FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleManchester United FC 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrManchester United FC 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedManchester United FC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Manchester United FC 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Manchester United FCavg 84.3¢	$20.1K	$20.1K	+$39.52	51% 23350-22134 (45484)
GO GoalLineGhost	Manchester United FCavg 83.1¢	$3.2K	$2.7K	+$43.31	50% 27131-27060 (54191)
RN1	Manchester United FCavg 83¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$55.18	53% 58869-51174 (110043)
RO roscoffCTR	AS Romaavg 15.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$10.4	53% 172-152 (324)
CA Cannae	Manchester United FCavg 82.2¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$32.01	53% 16363-14532 (30895)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Manchester United FCavg 83.4¢	$814.29	$825.1	+$10.81	45% 10597-12769 (23366)
38 38791873984189	Manchester United FCavg 83.4¢	$935.13	$687.43	+$14.74	48% 14339-15840 (30179)
XY xyz.ewwCTR	AS Romaavg 16.7¢	$733.57	$660	-$73.57	62% 16-10 (26)
SN SnakeBall	Manchester United FCavg 84.6¢	$237.75	$237.58	-$0.17	50% 35477-34953 (70430)
GH ghorrock	Manchester United FCavg 83¢	$268.51	$178.89	+$4.7	57% 18305-13557 (31862)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	AS Romaavg 15¢	$5.46	$5.46	+$0	52% 808-754 (1562)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	AS Romaavg 15¢	$2.73	$2.82	+$0.09	53% 898-794 (1692)

Flaznorp

Manchester United FC

Invested

$20,051.88

Value

$20.1K

PnL

+$39.52

Record

51%

23350-22134 (45484)

GoalLineGhost

Manchester United FC

Invested

$3,166.14

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$43.31

Record

50%

27131-27060 (54191)

RN1

Manchester United FC

Invested

$2,290.1

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$55.18

Record

53%

58869-51174 (110043)

roscoffCTR

AS Roma

Invested

$1,182.61

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$10.4

Record

53%

172-152 (324)

Cannae

Manchester United FC

Invested

$1,134.44

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$32.01

Record

53%

16363-14532 (30895)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Manchester United FC

Invested

$814.29

Value

$825.1

PnL

+$10.81

Record

45%

10597-12769 (23366)

38791873984189

Manchester United FC

Invested

$935.13

Value

$687.43

PnL

+$14.74

Record

48%

14339-15840 (30179)

xyz.ewwCTR

AS Roma

Invested

$733.57

Value

$660

PnL

-$73.57

Record

62%

16-10 (26)

SnakeBall

Manchester United FC

Invested

$237.75

Value

$237.58

PnL

-$0.17

Record

50%

35477-34953 (70430)

ghorrock

Manchester United FC

Invested

$268.51

Value

$178.89

PnL

+$4.7

Record

57%

18305-13557 (31862)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

AS Roma

Invested

$5.46

Value

$5.46

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

808-754 (1562)

VenusianCTR<$100

AS Roma

Invested

$2.73

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

898-794 (1692)

Research grade

NeutralManchester United FC at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Manchester United FC

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Manchester United FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleManchester United FC 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrManchester United FC 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedManchester United FC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Manchester United FC 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Manchester United FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.