Consensus PnL $2.1K · win rate 60% (3–2, n=5) · PM monthly #932 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$2.1K
Record
3W / 2L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 5 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1193
Source
PM monthly #932
Trades
34
Markets
6
Volume
$31.3K
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 4 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?Yes $610 · now 9¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?Yes $430 · now 5¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?Yes $183 · now 3¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?Yes $59 · now 2¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
3 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 8¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where xzsa's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 100%(won 100% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.