Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 67%
$2.8K
$0.26
97.9¢ → 98.2¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI bipbipbop | Noavg 98¢ | $2.4K | $2.1K | -$9.35 | 64% 2397-1323 (3720) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $263.39 | $263.25 | -$0.13 | 52% 5046-4717 (9763) |
DD dddtripsCTR | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $222.44 | $187.09 | -$35.35 | 38% 600-989 (1589) |
ME merod | Noavg 97.8¢ | $132.03 | $131.96 | -$0.07 | 51% 2516-2396 (4912) |
XZ xzsaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $4.55 | $59.37 | +$44.97 | 13% 4-27 (31) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $48.72 | $38.95 | +$0.18 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
Invested
$2,402.19
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$9.35
Record
64%
2397-1323 (3720)
Invested
$263.39
Value
$263.25
PnL
-$0.13
Record
52%
5046-4717 (9763)
Invested
$222.44
Value
$187.09
PnL
-$35.35
Record
38%
600-989 (1589)
Invested
$132.03
Value
$131.96
PnL
-$0.07
Record
51%
2516-2396 (4912)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$59.37
PnL
+$44.97
Record
13%
4-27 (31)
Invested
$48.72
Value
$38.95
PnL
+$0.18
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.