Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 91¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$508.62

Smart Money Entry

95.5¢ → 91.3¢

-4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,780

Combined PnL-$52.02

Yes2 traders

Total Value$955.44

Total Shares10,959

Combined PnL+$560.64

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 95.6¢	$3.0K	$1.6K	-$51.85	64% 2397-1323 (3720)
XZ xzsaCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$24.47	$610.35	+$556.31	13% 4-27 (31)
DD dddtripsCTR	Yesavg 8.6¢	$340.75	$345.09	+$4.34	38% 600-989 (1589)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$53.21	$56.78	+$3.56	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
└ No leg	Noavg 91.5¢	$35.46	$35.28	-$0.16
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7.4¢	$18.27	$21.5	+$3.72
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$42.75	$42.57	-$0.17	56% 14240-11046 (25286)

bipbipbop

Invested

$3,037.54

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$51.85

Record

64%

2397-1323 (3720)

xzsaCTR

Yes

Invested

$24.47

Value

$610.35

PnL

+$556.31

Record

13%

4-27 (31)

dddtripsCTR

Yes

Invested

$340.75

Value

$345.09

PnL

+$4.34

Record

38%

600-989 (1589)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100

Invested

$53.21

Value

$56.78

PnL

+$3.56

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

Both legs:

No$35.4691.5¢-$0.16

Yes$18.277.4¢+$3.72

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$42.75

Value

$42.57

PnL

-$0.17

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.6%

91.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.