Consensus PnL $319K · win rate 55% (295–238, n=533) · PM monthly #688 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$319.0K
Record
295W / 238L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 533 settled
Batting Avg
38.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1454
Source
PM monthly #688
Trades
842
Markets
835
Volume
$5.5M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?No $13K · now 89¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (60% of 15)
- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $1.3K · now 65¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
Specialties
515 settled consensus markets · held side won 61% at an average entry of 56¢- Tennis
+5 pts
side won 66% of 361 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +9%
- Soccer
+7 pts
side won 53% of 70 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +34%
- NBA
+10 pts
side won 58% of 24 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 18% of 11 at an average 25¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 17% of 89)
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 47% of 127)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 61% of 128)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 95% of 171)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.