Consensus PnL $10K · win rate 54% (53–45, n=98) · was PM monthly #359 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$10.0K
Record
53W / 45L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 98 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1532
Source
PM monthly #359
Trades
31
Markets
123
Volume
$2.5M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-11-01?Yes $910 · now 0¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
86 settled consensus markets · held side won 60% at an average entry of 55¢- Soccer
+3 pts
side won 49% of 35 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +11%
- NFL
+4 pts
side won 70% of 33 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +5%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 14% of 14)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 50% of 20)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 74% of 23)
- 70¢ and up: 34%(won 79% of 29)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.