Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-11-01?

10 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $107K held · ended Nov 1

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$107.4K

Combined PnL

-$384.77

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 96¢

+3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 20 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$101.2K

Total Shares109,601

Combined PnL-$472.59

Yes10 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares64,935

Combined PnL+$87.83

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

49h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
99 999585	Noavg 93¢	$46.5K	$46.3K	-$250	97% 37-1 (38)
Taroooooo	Noavg 93¢	$40.4K	$40.0K	-$217.3	63% 148-86 (234)
0F 0F62	Noavg 94¢	$8.3K	$8.2K	-$43.91	53% 2098-1864 (3962)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 91.9¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$26.68	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$101.44	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 92¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$10.93	67% 2646-1285 (3931)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$65.47	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7¢	$896.38	$960.4	+$64.03
└ No leg	Noavg 92¢	$265.01	$266.45	+$1.44
YO yoyoyoyoerCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$980	$910	-$70	47% 56-63 (119)
BA BabooouCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$560	$600	+$40	52% 214-200 (414)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$342.44	$342.44	+$24.46	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
LM LmmmxYyqXz5221uCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$214.9	$230.25	+$15.35	— 3-6 (9)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$189	$202.5	+$13.5	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 6¢	$179.32	$193.09	+$13.77	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$239.17	$188.33	-$50.84	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
HRTrading	Noavg 93¢	$186.38	$187.06	+$0.69	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 93.4¢	$116.59	$117.94	+$1.34	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 93¢	$103.23	$102.68	-$0.55	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 94¢	$8.76	$8.38	-$0.38	67% 23466-11821 (35287)
LonnieHawkinss<$100	Noavg 94¢	$9.72	$6.03	-$0.09	52% 1956-1790 (3746)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$1.8	$1.95	+$0.15	52% 13929-12704 (26633)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$0.75	$0.7	+$0	52% 7503-6793 (14296)

999585

Invested

$46,500

Value

$46.3K

PnL

-$250

Record

97%

37-1 (38)

Taroooooo

Invested

$40,440.69

Value

$40.0K

PnL

-$217.3

Record

63%

148-86 (234)

0F62

Invested

$8,255.81

Value

$8.2K

PnL

-$43.91

Record

53%

2098-1864 (3962)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$4,322.44

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$26.68

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,117.22

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$101.44

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,010.83

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$10.93

Record

67%

2646-1285 (3931)

CannaeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,161.38

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$65.47

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

Both legs:

Invested

$980

Value

$910

PnL

-$70

Record

47%

56-63 (119)

BabooouCTR

Yes

Invested

$560

Value

$600

PnL

+$40

Record

52%

214-200 (414)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$342.44

Value

$342.44

PnL

+$24.46

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

LmmmxYyqXz5221uCTR

Yes

Invested

$214.9

Value

$230.25

PnL

+$15.35

Record

—

3-6 (9)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Yes

Invested

$189

Value

$202.5

PnL

+$13.5

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$179.32

Value

$193.09

PnL

+$13.77

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$239.17

Value

$188.33

PnL

-$50.84

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

HRTrading

Invested

$186.38

Value

$187.06

PnL

+$0.69

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$116.59

Value

$117.94

PnL

+$1.34

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$103.23

Value

$102.68

PnL

-$0.55

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$8.76

Value

$8.38

PnL

-$0.38

Record

67%

23466-11821 (35287)

LonnieHawkinss<$100

Invested

$9.72

Value

$6.03

PnL

-$0.09

Record

52%

1956-1790 (3746)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.95

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

13929-12704 (26633)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.7

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 20 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

49h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.