Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Maine and Texas?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$7.0K
$-3.2K
0.7¢ → 0.4¢
-30% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
52h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.6K | $6.4K | $-3.1K | 44% 577-748 (1325) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $508.12 | $451.29 | -$46.95 | 50% 1219-1210 (2429) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $78.12 | $45 | -$33.12 | 56% 15513-12121 (27634) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $16.55 | $9.53 | -$7.02 | 17% 1014-4846 (5860) |
AN ancianoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.24 | $0.24 | +$0 | 52% 1154-1065 (2219) |
Invested
$9,562.57
Value
$6.4K
PnL
$-3.1K
Record
44%
577-748 (1325)
Invested
$508.12
Value
$451.29
PnL
-$46.95
Record
50%
1219-1210 (2429)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$78.12
Value
$45
PnL
-$33.12
Record
56%
15513-12121 (27634)
Invested
$16.55
Value
$9.53
PnL
-$7.02
Record
17%
1014-4846 (5860)
Invested
$0.24
Value
$0.24
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
1154-1065 (2219)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.