Consensus PnL $323K · win rate 47% (6839–7604, n=14443) · PM monthly #167 · holds 164 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$322.5K
Record
6839W / 7604L
Win Rate
47.0%
of 14443 settled
Batting Avg
52.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1911
Source
PM monthly #167 + pinned
Trades
1,196,385
Markets
28,645
Volume
$216.8M
Top consensus positions
164 in listed consensus markets · 117 of 164 on the consensus side (71%)- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $156K · now 99¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (83% of 48)
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $100K · now 81¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?No $23K · now 93¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (65% of 17)
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?No $22K · now 90¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No $13K · now 87¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (52% of 26)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No $9.8K · now 80¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (89% of 28)
- UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?No $8.8K · now 90¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (55% of 11)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $6.7K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (80% of 107)
Specialties
15,732 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 53¢- MMA
+11 pts
side won 73% of 11 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +16%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 60% of 1792 at an average 66¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 33%(won 5% of 5191)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 32% of 1681)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 52% of 1781)
- 70¢ and up: 45%(won 86% of 7079)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.