Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Michigan?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.2¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$4.0K
$-5.9K
0.6¢ → 0.3¢
-60% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.6K | $3.6K | $-6.0K | 43% 572-748 (1320) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $205.35 | $280.1 | +$56.02 | 53% 1175-1057 (2232) |
MI milkteaboba | Noavg 95.3¢ | $170 | $169.58 | +$7.58 | 67% 39-19 (58) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $17.32 | $6.25 | -$11.07 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
Invested
$9,562.57
Value
$3.6K
PnL
$-6.0K
Record
43%
572-748 (1320)
Invested
$205.35
Value
$280.1
PnL
+$56.02
Record
53%
1175-1057 (2232)
Invested
$170
Value
$169.58
PnL
+$7.58
Record
67%
39-19 (58)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$17.32
Value
$6.25
PnL
-$11.07
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.