Consensus PnL $672K · win rate 61% (732–459, n=1191) · was PM monthly #881 · holds 106 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$672.3K
Record
732W / 459L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 1191 settled
Batting Avg
62.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1109
Source
PM monthly #881 + pinned
Trades
59,622
Markets
1,854
Volume
$17.0M
Top consensus positions
106 in listed consensus markets · 55 of 106 on the consensus side (52%)- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $103K · now 89¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (57% of 54)
- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes $59K · now 25¢ · in at 23¢with the consensus (67% of 21)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $51K · now 72¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes $35K · now 49¢ · in at 25¢with the consensus (63% of 27)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Yes $28K · now 12¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $15K · now 72¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (67% of 67)
- Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?No $10K · now 88¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (33% of 9)
- Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?No $9.2K · now 93¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (69% of 29)
Specialties
1,138 settled consensus markets · held side won 73% at an average entry of 61¢- Geopolitics
+15 pts
side won 77% of 311 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +5%
- Mentions
+16 pts
side won 80% of 137 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +15%
- Politics
+12 pts
side won 79% of 148 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 24%(won 22% of 273)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 63% of 150)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 83% of 167)
- 70¢ and up: 48%(won 98% of 548)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.