Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Maine?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$15.0K
$-4.5K
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
51h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 99.7¢ | $10.0K | $10.0K | +$0 | 56% 15494-12093 (27587) |
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.5K | $5.0K | $-4.5K | 44% 577-748 (1325) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $5.75 | $34.5 | +$28.75 | 41% 1997-2831 (4828) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $30.97 | $14.06 | -$16.91 | 45% 2290-2797 (5087) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $8.81 | $3.95 | -$4.86 | 21% 813-3020 (3833) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$10,000
Value
$10.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
15494-12093 (27587)
Invested
$9,530
Value
$5.0K
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
44%
577-748 (1325)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$5.75
Value
$34.5
PnL
+$28.75
Record
41%
1997-2831 (4828)
Invested
$30.97
Value
$14.06
PnL
-$16.91
Record
45%
2290-2797 (5087)
Invested
$8.81
Value
$3.95
PnL
-$4.86
Record
21%
813-3020 (3833)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.