Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$-5.4K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.3¢

-50% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares1,609,218

Combined PnL$-5.4K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$1.5M	$4.6K	$-4.9K	44% 577-748 (1325)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$177.14	$214.6	+$71.39	50% 1220-1232 (2452)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$78.12	$30	-$48.12	56% 15515-12123 (27638)
AN ancianoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$38.9	$14.94	-$23.96	52% 1154-1067 (2221)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$9.61	$9.61	+$0	44% 6439-8045 (14484)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$8.81	$3.38	-$5.43	17% 1023-4939 (5962)
PL plainfolderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.77	$0.3	-$0.47	32% 2903-6253 (9156)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.4	$0.15	-$531.12	35% 104-196 (300)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,536,907.57

Value

$4.6K

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

44%

577-748 (1325)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$177.14

Value

$214.6

PnL

+$71.39

Record

50%

1220-1232 (2452)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.12

Value

$30

PnL

-$48.12

Record

56%

15515-12123 (27638)

ancianoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.9

Value

$14.94

PnL

-$23.96

Record

52%

1154-1067 (2221)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.61

Value

$9.61

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

6439-8045 (14484)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.81

Value

$3.38

PnL

-$5.43

Record

17%

1023-4939 (5962)

plainfolderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.77

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.47

Record

32%

2903-6253 (9156)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$531.12

Record

35%

104-196 (300)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7300.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

7400.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.