Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$17.8K
-$824.99
99.6¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $305.54 | $7.5K | -$806.32 | 43% 561-738 (1299) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 99.6¢ | $6.5K | $6.5K | -$13 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.7¢ | $3.6K | $3.6K | -$5.68 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 99.5¢ | $103.81 | $103.81 | +$0 | 76% 11358-3527 (14885) |
Invested
$305.54
Value
$7.5K
PnL
-$806.32
Record
43%
561-738 (1299)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$6,478.45
Value
$6.5K
PnL
-$13
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
balthazarInvested
$3,644.63
Value
$3.6K
PnL
-$5.68
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
Invested
$103.81
Value
$103.81
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11358-3527 (14885)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.