Consensus PnL $84 · win rate 78% (10059–2835, n=12894) · was PM monthly #837 · holds 516 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$83.96
Record
10059W / 2835L
Win Rate
78.0%
of 12894 settled
Batting Avg
36.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#480
Source
PM monthly #837
Trades
11,091
Markets
17,872
Volume
$2.8M
Top consensus positions
516 in listed consensus markets · 433 of 516 on the consensus side (84%)- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $32K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (85% of 40)
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $24K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No $22K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $16K · now 84¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $15K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (90% of 41)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $13K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $11K · now 97¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $11K · now 98¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
Specialties
3,315 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 90¢- Soccer
+13 pts
side won 99% of 195 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +5%
- Geopolitics
+10 pts
side won 97% of 635 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +5%
- Economy
+10 pts
side won 99% of 226 · avg entry 89¢
ROI +3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 60% of 99)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 96% of 98)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 98% of 168)
- 70¢ and up: 89%(won 100% of 2950)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.