Consensus PnL $1.2M · win rate 54% (9251–7991, n=17242) · PM monthly #11 · holds 16 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.2M
Record
9251W / 7991L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 17242 settled
Batting Avg
48.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1479
Source
PM monthly #11
Trades
53,239
Markets
37,734
Volume
$22.8M
Top consensus positions
16 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 16 on the consensus side (69%)- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?No $46K · now 91¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (69% of 16)
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes $21K · now 71¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (69% of 26)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $14K · now 99¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (69% of 67)
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $6.1K · now 28¢ · in at 20¢with the consensus (69% of 31)
- Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win LoL Worlds 2026?No $2.4K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?No $1.4K · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (93% of 14)
- Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes $1.3K · now 22¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (No)
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?No $1.2K · now 6¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
14,694 settled consensus markets · held side won 75% at an average entry of 60¢- Soccer
+25 pts
side won 73% of 2310 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +14%
- NFL
+28 pts
side won 87% of 167 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +12%
- Weather
+21 pts
side won 84% of 3760 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +21%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 20% of 4154)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 82% of 939)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 96% of 2100)
- 70¢ and up: 51%(won 99% of 7501)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.