Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska and Maine, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$6.3K
$-3.7K
0.6¢ → 0.4¢
-37% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.6K | $5.7K | $-3.8K | 43% 572-748 (1320) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $438.35 | $485.71 | +$90.3 | 53% 1174-1057 (2231) |
PL plumbisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $80 | $80 | +$0 | 57% 51-39 (90) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $17.32 | $10 | -$7.32 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
Invested
$9,562.57
Value
$5.7K
PnL
$-3.8K
Record
43%
572-748 (1320)
Invested
$438.35
Value
$485.71
PnL
+$90.3
Record
53%
1174-1057 (2231)
Invested
$80
Value
$80
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
51-39 (90)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$17.32
Value
$10
PnL
-$7.32
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.