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77
Consensus PnL $55K · win rate 57% (55–41, n=96) · was PM monthly #996 · holds 40 consensus positions
0x77fbd6bd...51de266cPolymarket
🐋Whale🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$55.3K
Record
55W / 41L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 96 settled
Batting Avg
80.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1359
Source
PM monthly #996
Trades
129
Markets
161
Volume
$2.1M
Top consensus positions
40 in listed consensus markets · 35 of 40 on the consensus side (88%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $300K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?No $31K · now 89¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?No $16K · now 82¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (54% of 13)
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?No $12K · now 87¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $11K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $11K · now 71¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (86% of 51)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $5.7K · now 44¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (64% of 62)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.6K · now 53¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
85 settled consensus markets · held side won 67% at an average entry of 63¢- Elections
+5 pts
side won 67% of 67 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 26%(won 9% of 22)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 43% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 80% of 5)
- 70¢ and up: 60%(won 94% of 51)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.