Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa and Kansas?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$-7.9K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.1¢

-76% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares1,548,977

Combined PnL$-7.9K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

56h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$9.6K	$2.1K	$-7.4K	44% 577-748 (1325)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.1¢	$115.98	$165.85	+$49.86	50% 1220-1233 (2453)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$16.55	$3.18	-$13.37	17% 1026-4959 (5985)
CU CustomTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$12.91	$2.48	-$10.43	15% 118-669 (787)
AN ancianoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$11.56	$2.22	-$9.34	52% 1161-1067 (2228)
PL plainfolderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.59	$0.11	-$0.47	33% 3061-6298 (9359)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.49	$0.09	-$527.28	35% 107-199 (306)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,562.57

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-7.4K

Record

44%

577-748 (1325)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$115.98

Value

$165.85

PnL

+$49.86

Record

50%

1220-1233 (2453)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.55

Value

$3.18

PnL

-$13.37

Record

17%

1026-4959 (5985)

CustomTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.91

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$10.43

Record

15%

118-669 (787)

ancianoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.56

Value

$2.22

PnL

-$9.34

Record

52%

1161-1067 (2228)

plainfolderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.47

Record

33%

3061-6298 (9359)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$527.28

Record

35%

107-199 (306)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

56h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.