Will Republicans win Alaska and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$4.0K
-$12.81
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.7¢ | $3.7K | $3.7K | +$0.35 | 61% 21387-13669 (35056) |
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $112.42 | $140.52 | +$28.1 | 43% 570-741 (1311) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $140.86 | $129.56 | -$30.19 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $17.32 | $6.25 | -$11.07 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
balthazarInvested
$3,706.78
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$0.35
Record
61%
21387-13669 (35056)
Invested
$112.42
Value
$140.52
PnL
+$28.1
Record
43%
570-741 (1311)
Invested
$140.86
Value
$129.56
PnL
-$30.19
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$17.32
Value
$6.25
PnL
-$11.07
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.