Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska and Texas?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$8.5K
$-1.7K
0.7¢ → 0.5¢
-16% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
51h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.6K | $7.9K | $-1.7K | 44% 577-748 (1325) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $517.02 | $530.49 | +$48.29 | 50% 1219-1210 (2429) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $78.12 | $55 | -$23.12 | 56% 15513-12121 (27634) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $62.23 | $44.41 | -$17.81 | 45% 2312-2836 (5148) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $8.81 | $6.2 | -$2.61 | 17% 1014-4846 (5860) |
Invested
$9,562.57
Value
$7.9K
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
44%
577-748 (1325)
Invested
$517.02
Value
$530.49
PnL
+$48.29
Record
50%
1219-1210 (2429)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$78.12
Value
$55
PnL
-$23.12
Record
56%
15513-12121 (27634)
Invested
$62.23
Value
$44.41
PnL
-$17.81
Record
45%
2312-2836 (5148)
Invested
$8.81
Value
$6.2
PnL
-$2.61
Record
17%
1014-4846 (5860)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.