Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$5.4K
$-4.6K
0.6¢ → 0.4¢
-46% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.6K | $5.0K | $-4.5K | 43% 570-741 (1311) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $398.25 | $310.01 | -$28.81 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
PL plumbisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $18.46 | $15.82 | -$2.64 | 57% 51-39 (90) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $17.32 | $8.75 | -$8.57 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
Invested
$9,562.57
Value
$5.0K
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
43%
570-741 (1311)
Invested
$398.25
Value
$310.01
PnL
-$28.81
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$18.46
Value
$15.82
PnL
-$2.64
Record
57%
51-39 (90)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$17.32
Value
$8.75
PnL
-$8.57
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.