Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Texas?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$5.5K
$-5.1K
0.6¢ → 0.4¢
-44% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
50h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.6K | $5.0K | $-4.5K | 44% 577-748 (1325) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $476.55 | $464.36 | +$36.87 | 52% 1205-1095 (2300) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $78.12 | $35 | -$43.12 | 56% 15494-12093 (27587) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $8.81 | $3.95 | -$4.86 | 21% 813-3020 (3833) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $8.33 | $2.48 | -$46.67 | 36% 16787-30093 (46880) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.45 | $0.2 | -$528.41 | 36% 99-173 (272) |
Invested
$9,562.57
Value
$5.0K
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
44%
577-748 (1325)
Invested
$476.55
Value
$464.36
PnL
+$36.87
Record
52%
1205-1095 (2300)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$78.12
Value
$35
PnL
-$43.12
Record
56%
15494-12093 (27587)
Invested
$8.81
Value
$3.95
PnL
-$4.86
Record
21%
813-3020 (3833)
Invested
$8.33
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$46.67
Record
36%
16787-30093 (46880)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$528.41
Record
36%
99-173 (272)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.