Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Texas?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$2.3K
$-7.4K
0.6¢ → 0.1¢
-76% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $9.6K | $2.1K | $-7.4K | 43% 570-741 (1311) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $96.08 | $114.11 | +$58.04 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $17.32 | $3.75 | -$13.57 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
PO poposubCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $1.15 | $0.16 | -$0.99 | 45% 2070-2502 (4572) |
Invested
$9,562.57
Value
$2.1K
PnL
$-7.4K
Record
43%
570-741 (1311)
Invested
$96.08
Value
$114.11
PnL
+$58.04
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$17.32
Value
$3.75
PnL
-$13.57
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$0.99
Record
45%
2070-2502 (4572)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.