Consensus PnL $12K · win rate 36% (579–1037, n=1616) · was PM monthly #384 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$12.0K
Record
579W / 1037L
Win Rate
36.0%
of 1616 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2143
Source
PM monthly #384
Trades
81
Markets
5,335
Volume
$2.1M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 3 on the consensus side (33%)- Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No $877 · now 74¢ · in at 74¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No $290 · now 26¢ · in at 28¢with the consensus (46% of 41)
- Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?No $14 · now 98¢ · in at 97¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
1,148 settled consensus markets · held side won 66% at an average entry of 60¢- F1
+14 pts
side won 100% of 35 · avg entry 86¢
ROI +21%
- Soccer
+7 pts
side won 72% of 763 · avg entry 64¢
ROI −7%
- Elections
+3 pts
side won 35% of 88 · avg entry 32¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 90% of 10 at an average 96¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −46%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 13% of 325)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 59% of 137)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 71% of 84)
- 70¢ and up: 52%(won 96% of 602)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.