CA Rosario Central leading at halftime?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 64¢ · $309 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$309.4
-$1.39
63.4¢ → 64¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Yesavg 63¢ | $243.94 | $153.68 | +$0 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $72.52 | $72.52 | -$0 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Yesavg 64.2¢ | $62.24 | $61.11 | -$1.13 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Yesavg 64.2¢ | $14.17 | $13.92 | -$0.26 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $8.17 | $8.17 | +$0 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
Invested
$243.94
Value
$153.68
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
Invested
$72.52
Value
$72.52
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$62.24
Value
$61.11
PnL
-$1.13
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
Invested
$14.17
Value
$13.92
PnL
-$0.26
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$8.17
Value
$8.17
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.