Consensus PnL $89K · win rate 80% (3484–863, n=4347) · PM monthly #448 · holds 27 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$88.7K
Record
3484W / 863L
Win Rate
80.0%
of 4347 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#424
Source
PM monthly #448
Trades
1,213
Markets
4,633
Volume
$5.8M
Top consensus positions
27 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 27 on the consensus side (56%)- Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo SonegoLorenzo Sonego $3.0K · now 66¢ · in at 58¢against the consensus (Adolfo Vallejo)
- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?No $2.4K · now 54¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (76% of 32)
- Spread: Commanders (-5.5)Commanders $2.0K · now 54¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Eagles)
- Spread: Bengals (-13.5)Bengals $2.0K · now 50¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5Under $2.0K · now 56¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (Over)
- Browns vs. SteelersSteelers $2.0K · now 65¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (64% of 12)
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Real Madrid CF $1.9K · now 42¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (48% of 22)
- Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5Over $1.9K · now 54¢ · in at 55¢against the consensus (Under)
Specialties
3,384 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 60¢- Tennis
+46 pts
side won 99% of 639 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +44%
- MLB
+46 pts
side won 100% of 592 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +46%
- College Football
+45 pts
side won 100% of 96 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +46%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 92% of 104)
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 99% of 861)
- 50–70¢: 42%(won 100% of 1423)
- 70¢ and up: 29%(won 100% of 996)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.