Villa Maria: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Nicolas Kicker
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Oriol Roca Batalla (75%) · Oriol Roca Batalla at 60¢ · $63 held · ends Nov 13
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Neutral
Oriol Roca Batalla
4
Oriol Roca Batalla 75%
$63.08
-$2.82
Research grade
NeutralOriol Roca Batalla at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Oriol Roca Batallaavg 65.2¢ | $39.45 | $36.33 | -$3.12 | 50% 21319-21602 (42921) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Oriol Roca Batallaavg 63¢ | $11.66 | $11.76 | +$0.09 | 56% 8074-6417 (14491) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Oriol Roca Batallaavg 60¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0.58 | 53% 2609-2302 (4911) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Nicolas Kickeravg 43.2¢ | $5.4 | $5 | -$0.38 | 49% 1529-1602 (3131) |
Invested
$39.45
Value
$36.33
PnL
-$3.12
Record
50%
21319-21602 (42921)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$11.66
Value
$11.76
PnL
+$0.09
Record
56%
8074-6417 (14491)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.58
Record
53%
2609-2302 (4911)
Invested
$5.4
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.38
Record
49%
1529-1602 (3131)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.