Consensus PnL $3.3M · win rate 50% (14230–14312, n=28542) · PM monthly #27 · holds 50 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$3.3M
Record
14230W / 14312L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 28542 settled
Batting Avg
53.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1724
Source
PM monthly #27
Trades
8,348
Markets
42,151
Volume
$72.9M
Top consensus positions
50 in listed consensus markets · 26 of 50 on the consensus side (52%)- Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-11-01?No $51K · now 62¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (33% of 11)
- Will Juventus FC win on 2026-11-01?Yes $26K · now 44¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (30% of 10)
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio $22K · now 74¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (64% of 24)
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Spirit $20K · now 56¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Team Yandex)
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Over $20K · now 75¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (63% of 19)
- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)Team Spirit $19K · now 82¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5Under $9.0K · now 51¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (70% of 15)
- Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5Under $8.3K · now 48¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (13% of 8)
Specialties
10,795 settled consensus markets · held side won 91% at an average entry of 60¢- NBA
+45 pts
side won 100% of 134 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +44%
- NHL
+44 pts
side won 100% of 92 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +46%
- College Football
+41 pts
side won 99% of 137 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +29%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 59% of 871)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 86% of 2307)
- 50–70¢: 38%(won 94% of 4138)
- 70¢ and up: 32%(won 99% of 3479)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.