Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Buvaysar Gadamauri, while the market favors Daniel Altmaier (70%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Orleans: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Daniel Altmaier
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Buvaysar Gadamauri (80%) · Buvaysar Gadamauri at 31¢ · $336 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Buvaysar Gadamauri
5
Buvaysar Gadamauri 80%
$336.26
$15.59
30¢ → 30.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralBuvaysar Gadamauri at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Daniel Altmaier 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 30¢ | $309.47 | $314.63 | +$5.16 | 51% 1818-1779 (3597) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 30¢ | $13.9 | $14.13 | +$0.23 | 30% 369-862 (1231) |
 VeryLucky888 | Daniel Altmaieravg 69¢ | $323.39 | $3.79 | +$10.19 | 52% 441-414 (855) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 30¢ | $2.14 | $2.18 | +$0.04 | 57% 4022-3038 (7060) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 31¢ | $1.55 | $1.53 | -$0.03 | 31% 373-839 (1212) |
Invested
$309.47
Value
$314.63
PnL
+$5.16
Record
51%
1818-1779 (3597)
Invested
$13.9
Value
$14.13
PnL
+$0.23
Record
30%
369-862 (1231)
VeryLucky888Invested
$323.39
Value
$3.79
PnL
+$10.19
Record
52%
441-414 (855)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$2.14
Value
$2.18
PnL
+$0.04
Record
57%
4022-3038 (7060)
Invested
$1.55
Value
$1.53
PnL
-$0.03
Record
31%
373-839 (1212)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.