Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Max Houkes, while the market favors Tom Gentzsch (69%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Orleans: Max Houkes vs Tom Gentzsch
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Max Houkes (80%) · Max Houkes at 32¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Max Houkes
5
Max Houkes 80%
$2.0K
$114.67
30.6¢ → 31.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralMax Houkes at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Tom Gentzsch 69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR | Max Houkesavg 30.5¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$121.03 | 49% 591-612 (1203) |
 VeryLucky888 | Tom Gentzschavg 72.5¢ | $114.63 | $109.25 | -$5.38 | 58% 53770-38280 (92050) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Max Houkesavg 32.1¢ | $27.31 | $26.4 | -$0.91 | 45% 2738-3312 (6050) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Max Houkesavg 31¢ | $14.74 | $14.98 | +$0.24 | 56% 9019-7114 (16133) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Max Houkesavg 32.1¢ | $9.29 | $8.98 | -$0.31 | 45% 2673-3235 (5908) |
Invested
$1,833.63
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$121.03
Record
49%
591-612 (1203)
VeryLucky888Invested
$114.63
Value
$109.25
PnL
-$5.38
Record
58%
53770-38280 (92050)
Invested
$27.31
Value
$26.4
PnL
-$0.91
Record
45%
2738-3312 (6050)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$14.74
Value
$14.98
PnL
+$0.24
Record
56%
9019-7114 (16133)
Invested
$9.29
Value
$8.98
PnL
-$0.31
Record
45%
2673-3235 (5908)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.