Charlottesville: Nicolas Mejia vs Murphy Cassone

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Murphy Cassone (33%) · Murphy Cassone at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 9

Nicolas Mejia44¢Murphy Cassone56¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Murphy Cassone

Consensus Traders

Murphy Cassone 33%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$0.65

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 56.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralMurphy Cassone at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Murphy Cassone

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nicolas Mejia44%

Murphy Cassone56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Murphy Cassone2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,001

Combined PnL+$0.75

Nicolas Mejia4 traders

Total Value$282.56

Total Shares646

Combined PnL-$1.4

Murphy Cassone — 33%Nicolas Mejia — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Murphy Cassone. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMurphy Cassone 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNicolas Mejia 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Nicolas Mejia 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Murphy Cassoneavg 56.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0.57	50% 495-492 (987)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Nicolas Mejiaavg 43¢	$130.74	$133.78	+$1.52	50% 2584-2581 (5165)
fyrskenCTR	Nicolas Mejiaavg 44¢	$300	$130.5	-$1.5	48% 301-322 (623)
VeryLucky888<$100	Murphy Cassoneavg 56¢	$16.8	$13.27	+$0.18	58% 43617-31727 (75344)
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100	Nicolas Mejiaavg 46.5¢	$6.49	$12.46	-$1.35	51% 11446-10800 (22246)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Nicolas Mejiaavg 44¢	$5.82	$5.82	-$0.07	61% 13851-8756 (22607)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Murphy Cassone

Invested

$1,116.87

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0.57

Record

50%

495-492 (987)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$130.74

Value

$133.78

PnL

+$1.52

Record

50%

2584-2581 (5165)

fyrskenCTR

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$300

Value

$130.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

48%

301-322 (623)

VeryLucky888<$100

Murphy Cassone

Invested

$16.8

Value

$13.27

PnL

+$0.18

Record

58%

43617-31727 (75344)

iWasEnoughCTR<$100

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$6.49

Value

$12.46

PnL

-$1.35

Record

51%

11446-10800 (22246)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Nicolas Mejia

Invested

$5.82

Value

$5.82

PnL

-$0.07

Record

61%

13851-8756 (22607)

Research grade

NeutralMurphy Cassone at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Murphy Cassone

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Murphy Cassone. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMurphy Cassone 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNicolas Mejia 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Nicolas Mejia 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Murphy Cassone wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.