Consensus PnL $23K · win rate 54% (289–246, n=535) · was PM monthly #808 · holds 14 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$22.6K
Record
289W / 246L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 535 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1511
Source
PM monthly #808
Trades
1
Markets
550
Volume
$529.3K
Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 14 on the consensus side (64%)- Utah vs. FlyersFlyers $410 · now 40¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (Utah)
- Will Nashville SC win on 2026-11-01?Yes $339 · now 65¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (20% of 5)
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Lakers $329 · now 48¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (80% of 6)
- Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5Over $305 · now 59¢ · in at 59¢against the consensus (Under)
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF $300 · now 64¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Real Racing Club)
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Over $264 · now 51¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (61% of 23)
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Over $215 · now 43¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Under)
- Kasımpaşa SK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5Under $195 · now 39¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
Specialties
287 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 50¢- MLB
+46 pts
side won 96% of 189 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +44%
- NHL
+46 pts
side won 93% of 60 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +44%
- Soccer
+41 pts
side won 100% of 31 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +41%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 52%(won 95% of 149)
- 50–70¢: 45%(won 96% of 128)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 100% of 9)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.