Consensus PnL $376K · win rate 50% (2515–2491, n=5006) · PM monthly #226 · holds 11 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$376.4K
Record
2515W / 2491L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 5006 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1730
Source
PM monthly #226
Trades
129
Markets
5,206
Volume
$10.0M
Top consensus positions
11 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 11 on the consensus side (55%)- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)Cagliari Calcio $29K · now 75¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (64% of 24)
- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?No $17K · now 54¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (76% of 32)
- Spread: Commanders (-5.5)Eagles $16K · now 47¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
- Exact Score: SS Lazio 3 - 0 Cagliari Calcio?No $13K · now 100¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 3.5Under $12K · now 81¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Over)
- Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under $7.8K · now 46¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Over)
- Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-11-01?No $6.4K · now 86¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will CD La Serena win on 2026-11-01?No $3.9K · now 61¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (83% of 12)
Specialties
2,649 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 51¢- NBA
+50 pts
side won 100% of 61 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +47%
- College Football
+50 pts
side won 98% of 42 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +54%
- Soccer
+35 pts
side won 91% of 1516 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +34%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 50% of 147)
- 30–50¢: 48%(won 84% of 1279)
- 50–70¢: 34%(won 91% of 894)
- 70¢ and up: 12%(won 97% of 329)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.