Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Matteo Arnaldi
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Cameron Norrie (83%) · Cameron Norrie at 70¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 9
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Research candidate
Cameron Norrie
6
Cameron Norrie 83%
1 arb excluded
$4.6K
$44.67
66.5¢ → 69.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateCameron Norrie at 70%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Cameron Norrie. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Cameron Norrieavg 66.8¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | +$25.46 | 58% 43600-31711 (75311) |
DV dv-pm | Cameron Norrieavg 66¢ | $789.69 | $795.67 | +$5.98 | 49% 3236-3320 (6556) |
K5 k56CTR | Matteo Arnaldiavg 33.3¢ | $750 | $731.99 | +$4.51 | 57% 890-659 (1549) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Matteo Arnaldiavg 32¢ | $112 | $416.47 | +$1.75 | 47% 13002-14566 (27568) |
| └ Cameron Norrie leg | Cameron Norrie | $302.72 | $302.72 | +$0 | |
| └ Matteo Arnaldi leg | Matteo Arnaldiavg 32¢ | $112 | $113.75 | +$1.75 | |
FL Flaznorp | Cameron Norrieavg 65¢ | $222.29 | $230.81 | +$8.52 | 51% 17613-16616 (34229) |
EU Eulhunter<$100 | Cameron Norrieavg 66¢ | $33 | $33.25 | +$0.25 | 54% 5907-4953 (10860) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Cameron Norrieavg 67¢ | $6.7 | $6.8 | -$0.05 | 52% 7639-6913 (14552) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,450.94
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$25.46
Record
58%
43600-31711 (75311)
Invested
$789.69
Value
$795.67
PnL
+$5.98
Record
49%
3236-3320 (6556)
Invested
$750
Value
$731.99
PnL
+$4.51
Record
57%
890-659 (1549)
Invested
$112
Value
$416.47
PnL
+$1.75
Record
47%
13002-14566 (27568)
Both legs:
Invested
$222.29
Value
$230.81
PnL
+$8.52
Record
51%
17613-16616 (34229)
Invested
$33
Value
$33.25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
54%
5907-4953 (10860)
Invested
$6.7
Value
$6.8
PnL
-$0.05
Record
52%
7639-6913 (14552)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.