Orleans: Jurij Rodionov vs Pedro Martinez
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jurij Rodionov (57%) · Jurij Rodionov at 76¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Jurij Rodionov
7
Jurij Rodionov 57%
$2.4K
-$25.27
74.1¢ → 76¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralJurij Rodionov at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-23 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Jurij Rodionov. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Jurij Rodionovavg 74¢ | $789.67 | $805.68 | +$16.01 | 51% 1816-1775 (3591) |
 VeryLucky888 | Jurij Rodionovavg 74.2¢ | $648.5 | $655.5 | +$7 | 52% 440-413 (853) |
00 0000.CTR | Pedro Martinezavg 25.9¢ | $707 | $654.04 | -$52.96 | — 7-12 (19) |
SE sentrio | Jurij Rodionovavg 74¢ | $172.09 | $174.42 | +$2.33 | 37% 338-564 (902) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Pedro Martinezavg 24¢ | $48 | $50 | +$2 | 48% 1257-1350 (2607) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Pedro Martinezavg 24¢ | $8.4 | $8.75 | +$0.35 | 48% 654-703 (1357) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Jurij Rodionovavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $3.75 | +$0 | 31% 274-610 (884) |
Invested
$789.67
Value
$805.68
PnL
+$16.01
Record
51%
1816-1775 (3591)
VeryLucky888Invested
$648.5
Value
$655.5
PnL
+$7
Record
52%
440-413 (853)
Invested
$707
Value
$654.04
PnL
-$52.96
Record
—
7-12 (19)
Invested
$172.09
Value
$174.42
PnL
+$2.33
Record
37%
338-564 (902)
Invested
$48
Value
$50
PnL
+$2
Record
48%
1257-1350 (2607)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$8.75
PnL
+$0.35
Record
48%
654-703 (1357)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.75
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
274-610 (884)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.