Costa do Sauipe: Gabriel Schenekenberg vs Joao Eduardo Schiessl
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Joao Eduardo Schiessl (100%) · Joao Eduardo Schiessl at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Joao Eduardo Schiessl
4
Joao Eduardo Schiessl 100%
$4.7K
$463.71
81.7¢ → 95.9¢
+17% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralJoao Eduardo Schiessl at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Joao Eduardo Schiesslavg 81¢ | $3.9K | $4.3K | +$457.18 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
UP UpTheBlues | Joao Eduardo Schiesslavg 95.1¢ | $270.68 | $273.11 | +$2.43 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Joao Eduardo Schiesslavg 76¢ | $21.27 | $25.33 | +$4.06 | 60% 4110-2768 (6878) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Joao Eduardo Schiesslavg 77¢ | $4.2 | $4.24 | +$0.04 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
RN1Invested
$3,890.22
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$457.18
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$270.68
Value
$273.11
PnL
+$2.43
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$21.27
Value
$25.33
PnL
+$4.06
Record
60%
4110-2768 (6878)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.2
Value
$4.24
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.