Matsuyama: Joel Schwaerzler vs Kaichi Uchida
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Joel Schwaerzler (67%) · Joel Schwaerzler at 80¢ · $773 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Joel Schwaerzler
6
Joel Schwaerzler 67%
$772.51
$1.27
79.2¢ → 79.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralJoel Schwaerzler at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Joel Schwaerzler. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Joel Schwaerzleravg 79¢ | $440.82 | $440.82 | +$0 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Kaichi Uchidaavg 21¢ | $131.29 | $131.29 | +$0 | 26% 234-663 (897) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Joel Schwaerzleravg 80¢ | $95.32 | $94.13 | -$1.19 | 56% 119-94 (213) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Kaichi Uchidaavg 20¢ | $45.5 | $47.77 | +$2.27 | 26% 234-653 (887) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Joel Schwaerzleravg 79¢ | $29.87 | $30.06 | +$0.19 | 32% 184-398 (582) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Joel Schwaerzleravg 79¢ | $28.44 | $28.44 | +$0 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
Invested
$440.82
Value
$440.82
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$131.29
Value
$131.29
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
234-663 (897)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$95.32
Value
$94.13
PnL
-$1.19
Record
56%
119-94 (213)
Invested
$45.5
Value
$47.77
PnL
+$2.27
Record
26%
234-653 (887)
Invested
$29.87
Value
$30.06
PnL
+$0.19
Record
32%
184-398 (582)
Invested
$28.44
Value
$28.44
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.