Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 57¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$6.3K
$2.4K
54¢ → 57¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MaxEnt | Noavg 56¢ | $84.52 | $5.6K | +$2.2K | 32% 129-276 (405) |
 XieGuangKun | Noavg 35.4¢ | $354.26 | $564.95 | +$210.69 | 51% 367-349 (716) |
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.4¢ | $53.7 | $60.9 | +$7.2 | 69% 406-182 (588) |
LI Liquidifier<$100 | Noavg 11.9¢ | $3.95 | $18.72 | +$14.78 | 50% 1109-1126 (2235) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.