Consensus PnL $181K · win rate 48% (723–796, n=1519) · PM monthly #917 · holds 118 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$180.7K
Record
723W / 796L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 1519 settled
Batting Avg
47.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2036
Source
PM monthly #917
Record (90 d)
68/153 · 44%
Trades
1,397
Markets
2,376
Volume
$77.7M
Top consensus positions
118 in listed consensus markets · 79 of 118 on the consensus side (67%)- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?No $66K · now 98¢with the consensus (88% of 16)
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?No $28K · now 95¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes $5.4K · now 88¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (No)
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?No $2.9K · now 97¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (88% of 24)
- US recession by end of 2026?No $2.5K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (81% of 31)
- Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?No $2.1K · now 95¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?No $1.9K · now 81¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?No $1.8K · now 55¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
1,341 settled consensus markets · held side won 39% at an average entry of 38¢- College Basketball
+17 pts
side won 62% of 21 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +11%
- NBA
+2 pts
side won 19% of 62 · avg entry 17¢
ROI 0%
- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 58% of 69 · avg entry 53¢
ROI −2%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 16% of 214 at an average 17¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 53%(won 7% of 713)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 45% of 153)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 55% of 119)
- 70¢ and up: 27%(won 94% of 356)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.