Consensus PnL $218K · win rate 73% (208–78, n=286) · hand-picked wallet · holds 36 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$218.0K
Record
208W / 78L
Win Rate
73.0%
of 286 settled
Batting Avg
63.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#631
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
134,822
Markets
667
Volume
$15.8M
Top consensus positions
36 in listed consensus markets · 22 of 36 on the consensus side (61%)- Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes $29K · now 54¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (43% of 14)
- Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes $17K · now 94¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (45% of 11)
- Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes $13K · now 99¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?No $1.6K · now 10¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?Yes $697 · now 24¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (33% of 9)
- Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $468 · now 94¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?No $400 · now 5¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes $351 · now 5¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
329 settled consensus markets · held side won 43% at an average entry of 40¢- Geopolitics
+11 pts
side won 64% of 74 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +1%
- Elections
+6 pts
side won 51% of 49 · avg entry 45¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 38% of 80 at an average 40¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 52%(won 7% of 172)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 33% of 30)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 73% of 30)
- 70¢ and up: 29%(won 99% of 97)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.