Consensus PnL $21K · win rate 33% (145–294, n=439) · was PM monthly #998 · holds 26 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$21.2K
Record
145W / 294L
Win Rate
33.0%
of 439 settled
Batting Avg
62.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2507
Source
PM monthly #998
Record (90 d)
77/241 · 32%
Trades
319
Markets
531
Volume
$859.2K
Top consensus positions
26 in listed consensus markets · 19 of 26 on the consensus side (73%)- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?No $6.0K · now 84¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (62% of 13)
- Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?No $5.6K · now 56¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?No $4.9K · now 94¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Yes $3.4K · now 96¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?No $3.2K · now 95¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?No $2.9K · now 68¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
- Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?No $2.1K · now 28¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?No $1.7K · now 80¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
Specialties
407 settled consensus markets · held side won 31% at an average entry of 32¢- Finance
+9 pts
side won 48% of 69 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +4%
- NBA
+3 pts
side won 9% of 11 · avg entry 6¢
ROI +2%
- Esports
+6 pts
side won 28% of 36 · avg entry 21¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 3% of 36 at an average 16¢ entry (−13 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 60%(won 12% of 243)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 36% of 58)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 60% of 47)
- 70¢ and up: 14%(won 86% of 59)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.