Consensus PnL $79K · win rate 45% (72–88, n=160) · hand-picked wallet · holds 35 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$79.1K
Record
72W / 88L
Win Rate
45.0%
of 160 settled
Batting Avg
53.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1987
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
16,301
Markets
884
Volume
$794.2K
Top consensus positions
35 in listed consensus markets · 29 of 35 on the consensus side (83%)- Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?No $2.8K · now 96¢ · in at 37¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Yes $2.6K · now 82¢ · in at 26¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?No $2.3K · now 96¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
- Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?No $1.4K · now 93¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $1.3K · now 95¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?No $1.2K · now 88¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?No $1.1K · now 63¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $969 · now 97¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
Specialties
666 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 53¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where XieGuangKun's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Finance — held side won 34% of 96 at an average 47¢ entry (−13 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 27%(won 11% of 180)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 33% of 113)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 57% of 122)
- 70¢ and up: 38%(won 81% of 251)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.