Will KV Kortrijk win on 2026-10-23?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 62¢ · $36K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$36.2K
-$665.49
65.6¢ → 61.5¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
218h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 66¢ | $23.5K | $21.9K | $-1.6K | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
RA rabbitfoot1CTR | Yesavg 36¢ | $12.3K | $13.1K | +$856.95 | 53% 1155-1007 (2162) |
CO CongoleseBorat | Noavg 55.4¢ | $840.53 | $940.73 | +$92.65 | 54% 50-42 (92) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 64.5¢ | $164.69 | $157.06 | -$7.63 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $33.8 | $32 | -$1.81 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
Invested
$23,549.46
Value
$21.9K
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$12,261.89
Value
$13.1K
PnL
+$856.95
Record
53%
1155-1007 (2162)
Invested
$840.53
Value
$940.73
PnL
+$92.65
Record
54%
50-42 (92)
0xheavy888Invested
$164.69
Value
$157.06
PnL
-$7.63
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$33.8
Value
$32
PnL
-$1.81
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.