Consensus PnL $201K · win rate 55% (1261–1044, n=2305) · PM monthly #85 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$201.1K
Record
1261W / 1044L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 2305 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1440
Source
PM monthly #85
Trades
1,054
Markets
2,610
Volume
$18.3M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 4 on the consensus side (25%)- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-11-01?Yes $25K · now 50¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (24% of 17)
- Will KV Kortrijk win on 2026-10-23?Yes $13K · now 39¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (No)
- Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5Over $6.8K · now 50¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Under)
- Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under $954 · now 44¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Over)
Specialties
1,057 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 65¢- Soccer
+35 pts
side won 100% of 882 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +45%
- MLB
+53 pts
side won 100% of 14 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +52%
- Tennis
+34 pts
side won 100% of 105 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +43%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 97% of 31)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 100% of 193)
- 50–70¢: 41%(won 100% of 432)
- 70¢ and up: 38%(won 100% of 401)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.