KV Kortrijk vs. Yellow-Red KV Mechelen: O/U 2.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 54¢ · $955 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
$954.82
$25.74
53.1¢ → 53.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Overavg 53.5¢ | $752.8 | $745.27 | +$24.07 | 50% 20715-20970 (41685) |
 rayvanmechelen | Overavg 51.2¢ | $105.06 | $108.65 | +$3.59 | 74% 2420-861 (3281) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 51.7¢ | $66.89 | $68.28 | +$1.39 | 51% 24202-22938 (47140) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100 | Underavg 49.6¢ | $35.9 | $32.6 | -$3.3 | 58% 6492-4654 (11146) |
Invested
$752.8
Value
$745.27
PnL
+$24.07
Record
50%
20715-20970 (41685)
rayvanmechelenInvested
$105.06
Value
$108.65
PnL
+$3.59
Record
74%
2420-861 (3281)
Invested
$66.89
Value
$68.28
PnL
+$1.39
Record
51%
24202-22938 (47140)
Invested
$35.9
Value
$32.6
PnL
-$3.3
Record
58%
6492-4654 (11146)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.