Karsiyaka vs. Besiktas
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Besiktas (20%) · Besiktas at 64¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
Besiktas
5
Besiktas 20%
$5.4K
-$237.69
Research grade
AvoidBesiktas at 64%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Besiktas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stepanka1234 | Besiktasavg 62.2¢ | $3.8K | $3.9K | +$47.59 | 76% 64-20 (84) |
BA Bagwell306CTR | Karsiyakaavg 38.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$212.59 | 57% 4276-3206 (7482) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Karsiyakaavg 40.7¢ | $304.24 | $270.09 | -$34.13 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Karsiyakaavg 39.7¢ | $176.08 | $159.63 | -$31.97 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Karsiyakaavg 39.8¢ | $69.47 | $62.89 | -$6.59 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
Invested
$3,815.81
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$47.59
Record
76%
64-20 (84)
Invested
$1,104.65
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$212.59
Record
57%
4276-3206 (7482)
Invested
$304.24
Value
$270.09
PnL
-$34.13
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$176.08
Value
$159.63
PnL
-$31.97
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$69.47
Value
$62.89
PnL
-$6.59
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.